Chivas / Club america

Soprano · Nov 30, 2006

Leans / Thoughts???

Lean to Chivas PK

Current Odds:

Chivas PK -190
Chivas ML +105

America PK +120
America ML +250

Over/Under 2.5 -145/+120

Writeup:

I rate América as stronger team than Chivas (on paper), but...
In regular season game between these two teams, in Round 11 (two months ago), Chivas dominated throughout 90 minutes and totally deserved their 2-0 win... Earlier this year, they won at home, too (1-0)...
Chivas have to win this game if they want to play in the grand final, as they will have extremely tough job at Azteca on Sunday and they will be eliminated if aggregate score is level, because América collected more points in regular season (so, Chivas can't be satisfied with a draw)... Chivas were convincing against Veracruz in Repechaje and against Cruz Azul in the 1/4 finals and they are in very good form, especially 'Bofo' Bautista... América eliminated Atlas in the 1/4 finals, comfortably in the end, 6-4, but I have to mention that they allowed their rival 3-0 lead in the 2nd leg... No injured and suspended players here, I think that home advantage will be the key, as Chivas are really playing great at Jalisco lately and América is not convincing away from home, although they managed to beat Atlas at the same stadium last week, but they will have much tougher opponent this time...
Pick: Chivas

Taparosca · Nov 30, 2006

Its time for Chivas i guess...dont follow too much mexican soccer but i think chivas will win this series!

GL Buddy!!!

Betting4Fun · Nov 30, 2006

I might play this one,the other one with Colo is tougher to predict,
Anything possible there.

America record in away games during the reg season
w/d/l = 3-2-4 goals 4-8

CD record at home this season; w/d/l 6-2-1 goals 17-6

Recent 2 games between the two CD won at home

<TABLE class=text cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width=600 align=center border=0><TBODY><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD class=textwhiteb align=middle bgColor=#003399 colSpan=5>Recent Encounters </TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD align=left width=190 bgColor=#edeef3>01/10/06</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#edeef3>CD Guadalajara</TD><TD align=middle width=50 bgColor=#edeef3>2-0</TD><TD align=left bgColor=#edeef3>CF America</TD><TD align=right width=190 bgColor=#edeef3>Mexico - Apertura</TD></TR><TR align=middle bgColor=white><TD align=left width=190 bgColor=#ffffff>27/02/06</TD><TD align=right bgColor=#ffffff>CD Guadalajara</TD><TD align=middle width=50 bgColor=#ffffff>1-0</TD><TD align=left bgColor=#ffffff>CF America</TD><TD align=right width=190 bgColor=#ffffff>Mexico - Clausura</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

America played Atlas and and scored 3 goals twice on the road an at home vs Atals,CD played Atlas at home last month and beat them 3-1
too.

According to odds on exact score,the most anticipated score at bet365
in ranking order is

1-0 for CD or 1-1 @ 6.5 each.
2-0 for CD @ 7.5
2-1 FOR CD,0-0 or 1-0 for America @ 8.5 each.

I lean towards CD -.5 @ 1.99

Soprano · Nov 30, 2006

Good Info!!! Not afraid of the Tie? Would PK not be the safer play?

Soprano · Nov 30, 2006

ML has gone down for America +250 to +195

Betting4Fun · Nov 30, 2006

PK is safer play,you are right,but for pk i get 1.49 @bet365
and based on the last 2 games between the two and CD performance
at home and in their last games i will take my chances for higher return.

JMO

Betting4Fun · Nov 30, 2006

Soprano said:
ML has gone down for America +250 to +195

At bet365 it is still where it was earlier at 3.5 for America ML.

As far as line movement,see this

<TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width=600 align=center bgColor=#d2d7bf border=0><TBODY><TR class=main><TD bgColor=#f3c176 colSpan=11 height=18>Mexico : Apertura Playoffs - 01/12/2006</TD></TR><TR class=main bgColor=#990033><TD width=40 bgColor=#d2d597 rowSpan=2>03:00

</TD><TD width=160 bgColor=#ffffff>Chivas Guadalaraja</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>-0.25</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>1.812</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>-0.25</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>2.099</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6 rowSpan=2>2.5</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff rowSpan=2>2.5</TD><TD bgColor=#d2d597>over</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>1.931</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>1.941</TD></TR><TR class=main><TD width=160 bgColor=#ffffff>CF America</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>+0.25</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>2.099</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>+0.25</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>1.812</TD><TD bgColor=#d2d597>under</TD><TD bgColor=#f0f0e6>1.950</TD><TD bgColor=#ffffff>1.941</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

The line dropped in favor of CD by 28 cents since line was offered for AH bet here,however i lean towards CD mostly because of past record between the two and CD performance on their home field,
I learned that line movement in soccer means nothing ,but if it supports our pick then even better.